From Casey to Menzies: Where local candidates want your preferences to go this election

Postal voting has begun, and early voting centres across the eastern suburbs of Melbourne are open, as we enter the final stretch ahead of the May 3 election.

There has been a lot of talk about the power of preferences, so we wanted to explain how the system works and how to get the most out of your vote.

Local candidates are releasing their “How to Vote” cards in various formats, including social media posts, newspaper advertisements and flyers. 

They are a guide to how a candidate would like you to number your preferences, from most favoured to least favoured. 

It’s important to remember that these are merely suggestions, and you are welcome to order the candidates as you wish.

So, how does preferential voting work?

When you approach the ballot box with your House of Representatives (Lower House) ballot, the process is relatively straightforward. Simply number each candidate in the order of who you wish to be your local federal MP for the next three years - from most preferred to least preferred.

When polling closes volunteers and party scrutineers set about the painstaking process of counting votes. Multiple counts will take place as the full suite of candidates are whittled down, one by one, to a final victor. 

The first vote count is on first preferences. If one candidate receives more than 50 percent of first preference votes, they are elected.

However, with votes split between major parties, minor parties and Independents, it is only in very safe seats where this occurs.

What happens to my second and third votes, and so on?

If no candidate receives a majority of first preference votes, the next round of counting begins. 

The candidate who receives the least number of first preference votes is excluded, and their second preference votes are distributed to the remaining candidates.

If no candidate reaches more than 50 percent with these added preference votes, the next round of counting begins, on the excluded candidate’s third preferences.

This process is repeated until a candidate receives an absolute majority.

How do preference deals work for candidates?

Preferences may play a key role on May 3 as Labor and the Coalition continue to lose their stranglehold on Australian politics.

At the 2019 federal election, Labor and the Coalition attracted 74.78 percent of first preference votes. In the 2022 election it fell to 68.27 percent.

Many races saw candidates who received the most first preference votes overtaken by other candidates thanks to preferences.

How are some of the local candidates distributing their preferences?

Clive Palmer said his Trumpet of Patriots party would place Labor last in all seats it currently holds, and the same would apply for the Coalition.

Let’s look at one electorate in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs - Casey - and see how the candidates are recommending their voters to distribute their preferences. 

The sitting Liberal MP Aaron Violi’s “How to Vote” card reflects a number of his Liberal counterparts, with Family First candidate Dan Nebauer securing second place and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation candidate Ambere Livori in third place. 

Family First is an anti-abortion minor party with a focus to “encourage and incentivise monogamous, heterosexual marriage”. Lyle Shelton is the party’s National Director, a former Australian Christian Lobby boss and prominent leader for the “No” campaign during Australia’s same-sex marriage postal survey.

The bottom two places on Violi’s ballot suggestions were held by Trumpet of Patriots candidate Phillip Courtis and Greens candidate Merran Blair.

Labor candidate Naomi Oakley has placed Greens in second place with Animal Justice Party candidate Chloe Bond in third place, with One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots at the bottom of the list.

Greens candidate Merran Blair has placed Bond in second place and Independent candidate Claire Ferres Miles in third place, followed by Labor and Liberal. One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots are at the end of the list.

However, Independent candidate for Casey Claire Ferres Miles has followed in the footsteps of other Independents by not listing any preferences beyond placing herself in the top spot, with Deakin independent Jess Ness also following suit.

Independent candidate for Menzies, Stella Yee, has not listed any preferences on her “How to Vote” card, with a campaign assistant saying it was up to voters.

“Your second, third and fourth place preferences are vitally important especially if you are unhappy with the major parties and would like to send them a signal by putting them down the list,” they said.

Blair said the Greens had nominated preferences in the order of candidates who most align with the party’s values.

“The Greens’ goal is to keep Dutton out, have the balance of power and push Labor to act,” she said. “Having said all of that, anyone can mark their ballot paper in whatever order they want and choose their own preferences.”