Will Glen Waverley's property values go up or down in the next five years?

Property experts see several factors pointing to potential continued growth in Glen Waverley over the next five years, though perhaps at a more measured pace than previous years.

"Given the subtle improvement in housing affordability seen over the past few years along with the prospect for lower interest rates this year, I would be surprised if housing values moved materially lower from here," CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless told the Eastern Melburnian.

Lawless said Glen Waverley has shown notable resilience compared to the wider Melbourne market. Not only have Glen Waverley properties maintained significantly higher values than the Melbourne average, but they've also weathered recent market challenges better.

"Glen Waverley housing prices show a substantial premium over the broader Melbourne benchmark, with a median house value of $1.683m and $918k respectively," Lawless says. "The median unit value was $912k in Glen Waverley compared with $607k across Greater Melbourne." 

This price gap appears justified by the market's performance.

"Glen Waverley home values haven't fallen as much as they have across Greater Melbourne, down 1.4 per cent and 6.0 per cent respectively," Lawless said. "Longer term, the past five years have seen Glen Waverley home values rise at the average annual rate of 2.7 per cent while Greater Melbourne values have increased at the slightly slower rate of 1.9 per cent per annum."

But what makes Glen Waverley such a resilient performer? Experts pointed to several key factors.

"Glen Waverley is essentially a little city within the city," Quantify Strategic Insights head of data and insights Angie Zigomanis told the Eastern Melburnian.

"The Glen Waverley activity centre has a high level of amenity in the sense that there's a big shopping centre, cinemas, a hotel, and there's also a lot of good eating options around there as well."

Another key factor driving demand is Glen Waverley Secondary College. Zigomanis said this could become even more significant: "We've seen a bit of a change by the State Government making independent schools pay payroll tax … if we start seeing some of the independent schools responding by upping fees, that probably makes a good public school like Glen Waverley high school a bit more attractive."

Location is another major drawcard. "It's close to quality employment," Zigomanis said. "You've got the Monash employment cluster over there, which has a lot of office space … the medical precinct as well, the university, so you can get a wide mix of people who can potentially live there."

The rental market's strength further demonstrates the suburb's appeal, according to Lawless. "Rental markets have been stronger across Glen Waverley, with rents up 7.1 per cent last year compared with a 4.1 per cent rise in rents across Greater Melbourne," he said. "Based on homes sold over the past year, they were held for a median of 10.1 years, while Melbourne's average was lower at 9.5 years."

For investors, there's another dynamic at play. "You find a lot of demand not just from families, but also from builder-developers who want to build two, three, four townhouses on some of those sites," Zigomanis said.

However, Lawless cautions against expecting rapid growth. "Although interest rates are set to reduce later this year, the cutting cycle is likely to be relatively gradual and cautious," he said. "With this in mind, it's hard to see the local housing market moving back into a strong growth phase until interest rates reduce more substantially and housing demand picks up."

Looking at the five-year horizon, Zigomanis said she was optimistic, while acknowledging economic uncertainties: "Barring any sort of major economic catastrophe five years from now, you'd expect Glen Waverley prices to be higher than they are right now."

The bottom line? Glen Waverley's combination of quality schools, employment opportunities, and lifestyle amenities suggests property values are more likely to rise than fall over the next five years. However, the days of dramatic gains appear to be over, replaced by expectations of more sustainable growth — provided the broader economy remains stable, of course.