Deakin hangs on a wafer-thin margin, and is being eyed off by Labor and the Coalition
In a repeat of the 2022 election, Liberal MP Michael Sukkar will be fighting off Labor candidate Matt Gregg in one of the nation’s most marginal seats.
Matthew Sims
March 06, 2025
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Following our coverage on all of the candidates who have so far put their hat in the ring ahead of the upcoming federal election and our look at the Casey electorate who have so far put their hat in the ring, we wanted to take a closer look at a key electorate.
Next is the electorate of Deakin.
Where is Deakin?
The electorate covers 98 square kilometres, and there are three Local Government Areas (LGA) within its boundary: Manningham, Maroondah and Whitehorse. Suburbs in Deakin include Bayswater North, Croydon, Heatherdale, Heathmont, Kilsyth South, Mitcham, Ringwood, Vermont and Vermont South.
Created in 1937 and named after former Prime Minister Alfred Deakin, the seat was initially a rural seat, but has been based in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs since 1949.
Who has held the seat?
Liberal MP Michael Sukkar has held Deakin since the 2013 election, retaining the seat at the 2016, 2019 and 2022 polls.
Sukkar received 41.5 per cent of the first preference vote in the 2022 election, with Labor candidate Matt receiving 32.8 per cent, Greens candidate Rob Humphreys 13.9 per cent and United Australia Party candidate Bianca Gidley 2.8 per cent.
Following preference distribution, Sukkar retained the seat for the Liberal Party with a margin of only 0.2 per cent, which represented a 4.5 per cent 2PP swing to Labor.
Prior to Michael Sukkar, Labor’s Mike Symon held the seat from 2007 to 2013. However, the Liberal Party has held the seat for the majority of its existence, with previous MPs including Phil Barresi and Ken Aldred, whose daughter Mary is the Liberal candidate in the seat of Monash.
Who are the candidates?
The main race is between Liberal incumbent Michael Sukkar and Labor’s Matt Gregg, who went head-to-head in the 2022 election.
Independent candidate Jess Ness and Greens candidate Amy Mills are also in the running.
Matt Gregg (Labor)
Gregg secured a 4.5 per cent 2PP swing to Labor at the last federal election.
His aims include delivering more cost of living relief and making child care more accessible and affordable.
Gregg’s other priorities include protecting Medicare and improved access to bulk-billed healthcare, hospital and school funding and the NDIS.
Jess Ness (Independent)
The Independent candidate for the Voices of Deakin said she can be a “genuine voice” for the people of Deakin “without having to kowtow to party politics and positions”.
Ness told the Eastern Melburnian the top three issues facing the Deakin electorate are cost of living and housing affordability, climate action and energy security, and public trust and government transparency.
“I would advocate for sustainable home upgrades to reduce energy costs, targeted relief measures, and stronger energy efficiency standards in both new and existing buildings to reduce household bills and emissions,” she said.
“We need immediate action to cut costs and keep the lights on, while also investing in a long-term plan for cleaner, more reliable energy.”
She said she would “fight to end backroom deals and political favours, strengthen anti-corruption laws, enforce real-time financial disclosures for MPs, and advocate for transparency in government decisions that affect the public”.
Amy Mills (Greens)
Mills is a dietitian, disability support worker and renter living with a disability. She was driven to run as a Greens candidate with the goal of building accessible, connected communities and tackling the climate and cost of living crisis.
“My priority is tackling the cost of living crisis, making sure the people of Deakin aren’t skipping meals because they can’t afford them, or living in a constant state of stress because they don’t know where they will be living in the next six months,” she told the Eastern Melburnian.
“What this looks like is pushing for breaking up the supermarket duopoly and making supermarket price gouging illegal.
“It also looks like regulating the big banks so they can’t keep pushing up housing costs for everyone.”
Michael Sukkar MP (Liberal)
Standing for his fifth term as the Deakin MP, Sukkar grew up in Ringwood and has lived and worked in the Deakin electorate for his whole life.
According to his website his priorities include supporting young sportspeople and veterans, investing in new and upgraded local sporting facilities and advocating for elderly people.
Sukkar is also the Opposition spokesperson for social services, the NDIS, housing and homelessness.
He is married to Anna, and they have two sons, Leo and Nathan.
He did not respond before publication to our request for broader comments on his priorities.
How safe is the seat?
Monash School of Social Sciences Head of Politics and International Relations Discipline Zareh Ghazarian said the recent redistribution in Deakin made it even more marginal than it was at the 2022 election.
“It is the most marginal Liberal-held seat, so this is going to be a key seat … and if the Liberal Party was to lose this seat, I can’t imagine it could form government,” he told the Eastern Melburnian.
“The Liberal Party is trailing by a number of seats, they need to win as many seats as they can, in addition to holding all the seats that they currently have. It has to hold on to the seat of Deakin to be able to have any chance of forming government.”
Ghazarian said federal Labor appeared to have lost support in other parts of Victoria, and would be looking to Deakin as a seat it could potentially poach from the Liberals in order to help stem losses in other electorates.
“I would expect the Deakin contest to be something where we’ll see both major parties be very active, I would expect the leaders to be visiting the seat and it to become a real prominent focal point for the campaign.”