Following our coverage on all of the candidates who have so far put their hat in the ring ahead of the upcoming federal election, we wanted to take a closer look at a key electorate.

First cab off the rank is Casey.

Table of Contents

• Where is Casey?

• Who has previously held the seat?

• Who are the candidates?

  • Claire Ferres Miles (Independent) says she is the …

  • Merran Blair (Greens) promises action on climate c …

  • Aaron Violi MP (Liberal) promises to address a ran …

• Why hasn’t Labor picked a candidate?

• When will the election be held?

Where is Casey?

The electorate covers 2624 square kilometres, and there are four Local Government Areas (LGA) within its boundary: Cardinia, Manningham, Nillumbik and Yarra Ranges. Suburbs in Casey include Lilydale, Mount Evelyn, Kilsyth and Belgrave.

First contested in 1969, the seat was named after Richard Casey, Australia’s 16th Governor-General.

Who has previously held the seat?

Liberal MP Aaron Violi has held Casey since the last federal election in 2022, taking over from long-time Casey MP and former House of Representatives Speaker Tony Smith.

Violi received 36.5 per cent of the first preference votes in the 2022 election, with Labor candidate Bill Brindle receiving 24.9 per cent, Greens candidate Jenny Game 12.9 per cent and Independent candidate Claire Ferres Miles 8.3 per cent. 

Following preference distribution, Violi retained the seat for the Liberal Party with a margin of 1.5 per cent, which represented a 3.1 per cent 2PP swing to Labor.

Previously, Tony Smith held the seat for the Liberal Party for more than 21 years, taking over from former Liberal Party deputy leader Michael Wooldridge, who served as Casey MP from 1998 to 2001, following 11 years as the MP for Chisholm.

The last Labor MP to hold the seat was Peter Steedman, who won the 1983 election.

Who are the candidates?

Incumbent Liberal Party MP Aaron Violi will face down a few challengers. The Greens have preselected Merran Blair while Independent Claire Ferres Miles is running to represent Casey for the second time. Labor has not yet nominated its candidate despite the significant swing in its favour at the last election.

Claire Ferres Miles (Independent) says she is the only candidate who can represent the urgent needs of the community

Miles said as an Independent, she would work with both sides of parliament.

“People are tired of one side saying yes and one side saying no,” she told the Eastern Melburnian.

“An Independent is colour agnostic and works with every member of parliament [who] wants action on common issues.”

Her key priorities if elected included reducing the cost of living and price increases in groceries and other goods, making sure Casey was front and centre in the housing conversation, delivering proper healthcare services, boosting the area’s climate resilience and restoring trust in the Federal Government.

“I will work with the Casey community to design a 12-month program of community engagement to invite people to more actively participate in the work of our Federal Parliament,” she said.

“Ideas suggested to me include setting up working groups on priority issues, a volunteer program for locals to work in Federal Parliament to learn and experience how the parliament works, a calendar of public meetings and events, and pulse check surveys on upcoming legislation.”

Miles said her transparency was evidenced by the fact she voluntarily discloses “in real-time all cash donations to my campaign on my website, with donors identified by name and donation amount”.

She said she “may not always be able to solve the problem, but I will follow-up. I will work hard to be responsive to the community”.

Merran Blair (Greens) promises action on climate change

Blair said she did not care about politics until five years ago.

“My decision to get more involved, and ultimately to run as a Greens candidate, was based on my frustration with consecutive governments' lack of action on climate change,” she told the Eastern Melburnian.

“The science is clear and yet our employed representatives continue to pretend nothing is happening and keep expanding and supporting the fossil fuel industry.

“I was also frustrated by the blatant sexism in politics and the influence that big business has on decisions.”

She said that, “unlike the other major parties, the Greens do not take corporate donations, which means we are independent of the influence that money can have on policy decisions”.

“Additionally, voters can be sure of how I will vote on issues because I have to make decisions that are in accordance with Greens values and policy platforms. There is no chance of me going rogue.”

Blair said if elected she would focus on strengthening the local community’s resilience in dealing with climate change: “In Casey, we are at high risk from the effects of climate change, such as bushfires and other extreme weather events. 

“Our electricity supply is at risk and our house insurance premiums just keep increasing. I want to support residents to find ways to deal with these issues by exploring options like micro-grid electricity systems and community insurance funds.”

Aaron Violi MP (Liberal) promises to address a range of issues across the electorate

Liberal Party incumbent Aaron Violi said his family had called Casey home since they migrated to Australia in the 1950s.

He described the large Casey electorate as “unique and diverse” and said that issues of concern to the community often revolved around where people lived.

“As one example, if you live in the Dandenongs, telecommunications are one of your biggest concerns, but if you’re in the suburbs, improving local roads to reduce traffic congestion might be what matters to you,” he told the Eastern Melburnian.

“As a general comment, cost of living, roads and access to healthcare are common issues raised with me.”

Violi said his plan included addressing the cost of living crisis, investing in housing infrastructure, incentivising GPs and increasing mental health support.

“We will address the housing crisis by addressing supply, maintaining the Home Guarantee Scheme and continuing our support of first home buyers and those with smaller deposits,” he said.

Violi said he and Opposition health spokesperson Anne Ruston had met local mental health service providers and that he would continue “to advocate for improved local services”.

“We will also restore 20 Medicare subsidised mental health sessions to enable more locals to receive the support they deserve,” he said.

Why hasn’t Labor picked a candidate?

Monash School of Social Sciences Head of Politics and International Relations Discipline Zareh Ghazarian said he found it a “bit surprising” Labor had not yet put forward a candidate for Casey.

“I’d expect seats like Casey, where the margin is really small, to be fierce battlegrounds for the major parties.”

Ghazarian said waiting to name a candidate in Casey may put Labor at a disadvantage.

“A candidate would need some time to build a profile, to build the close community connections and to build the rapport that’s so crucial in persuading voters to support them at an election,” he said.

Speaking on Miles’ chances as an Independent candidate, Ghazarian said this year could represent a key turning point in consolidating the future of Independent candidates in Australia.

“The 2022 election was really significant because Independents had great successes and were able to win seats and defeat long-standing incumbent MPs from the major parties,” he said.

“I would think that Claire would need to increase the primary vote significantly to be able to have a real shot of winning the seat.”

Ghazarian said the winner in Casey will rely on preferences, “and so if Claire is able to maintain that sort of performance around eight to 10 per cent, then those preferences will be critical in determining who wins”.

When will the election be held?

He tipped Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would hold the election as late as possible in the cycle (May 17) to give Labor a chance to climb back in the polls.

“Looking at the opinion polls, it seems that Labor is still on the back foot,” Ghazarian said, but added that “if there’s an uptick, for example a change or reduction in the interest rate, or for example, there is a bounce in the opinion polls, you might expect it to be held earlier.”

Correction: An earlier version of this story stated the Casey electorate covered 2466 square kilometres. However, following the most recent electoral distribution, the current area Casey covers is 2624 square kilometres. We regret the error.