"Going to happen again": Preparing for the inevitable as fire risk rises

“That sky was pitch-black, and it was terrifying.” That’s the way Ferntree Gully local Sally Dusting-Laird described the 1997 bushfire that ripped through Mount Dandenong. It’s a vivid image that, for many Australians, could describe the looming threats of the future.

High-density housing, growing development, temperatures rising and record levels of dryness mean severe bushfires in Australia – and around the world – will no longer be once-in-a-lifetime events. Victoria alone bears the scars of devastating fires: from the Ash Wednesday infernos of 1983, which killed 47 people, to 2009’s Black Saturday and the most recent Black Summer fires of 2019/20.

Each of these bushfires erupted and left a trail of devastation in their wake, with communities left to wonder: are we prepared for the next one? How can we better detect what’s coming? And how resilient will we need to be?

Fire danger on the rise

According to the Australasian Fire And Emergency Services Authorities Council’s (AFAC) Summer 2024 Seasonal Bushfire Outlook, there is an increased risk of fire for most of western Victoria, southwest Gippsland, greater Melbourne and north-east Victoria.

The current level of landscape dryness in these areas is strong enough that, without significant rainfall, the flammability of fuels in forests, woodlands and heathlands will remain high with elevated potential for fires to start and spread.

The outlook also highlighted mean temperatures for April to October were the third highest on record since 1910, and there’s also an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures across Australia, particularly in the north and large areas in the east and west.

Are we ready to react?

Part of the issue with bushfires in Australia is not just our increasingly warming climate. It’s also our readiness to prepare.

“Bushfires are things that [people] see on television happening to other people somewhere else,” La Trobe University Adjunct Professor in the School of Psychology and Public Health Jim McLennan told the Eastern Melburnian.

“A bushfire threat — until it happens — is always something that’s in the future and might or might not happen.

“The present takes precedence over the future.”

Professor McLennan has been looking at the psychological impacts of bushfires and the overall awareness of fire risks before and after severe events. He is “not terribly optimistic” that Australia or Victoria are adequately prepared for the next severe bushfire event inevitably on its way.

“Before Black Saturday, I think there was an element of complacency,” he said.

“Once you have a Black Saturday or a Black Summer kind of climate weather event, it’s largely a matter of chance as to what happens.”

Communities need to remain strong

Australasian Women in Emergencies Network co-founder Amanda Lamont, who is also Zoos Victoria’s climate and disaster resilience adviser, outlined the six priorities put forward by Victoria’s emergency management plan. She said that while the first priority is human life and property, the sixth is environment and cultural assets.

“It’s great that it’s on the list. It’s a shame that it’s number six.”

According to Lamont, hope and valuing the right things are essential to a community’s resilience in the face of a bushfire.

“We are innately good and when the going gets tough, people step up every single time,” Lamont said. “We should not see that as an exception. It would amaze me if people didn’t do that.”

However, she said one of her most significant concerns was the reliance being placed on credit card and debit transactions, which are reliant on the Telstra network or a Wi-Fi connection, especially for rural communities.

“I think we need to pay really close attention to where this is all heading,” Lamont said.

“We’re still serving current problems and not necessarily thinking about what the future world looks like and pre-planning.”

Preparing early to stay safe

After bringing her daughter home from the hospital on 19th January 1997, Sally Dusting-Laird was met with a barrage of phone calls from friends and family asking if she was okay. She quickly realised the calls were not about her daughter, but about a bushfire that was burning through large parts of Mount Dandenong.

“I could not believe what I was seeing,” she told the Eastern Melburnian.

“That sky was pitch-black and it was terrifying.”

Dusting-Laird lived in Altadena, California, from 1989 to 1996, with her nephew living in her family’s home until he was forced to evacuate during the Eaton fire which tore through the community.

Watching the town she once called home turned to ash, she said her biggest fear was now that the eastern suburbs would soon be threatened with an event of a similar scale.

“This type of thing is going to happen again,” Dusting-Laird said.

“It’s similar to fires leaping from the Hills and demolishing every house in Knox, Monash and Maroondah.”

“I could just see it happening here, no problem at all.”

She said with only one major road serving as an exit route for those living in the Hills, it was a disaster waiting to happen.

“You are not going to be getting out because you are going to be going down the hill with 5000 other people,” Dusting-Laird said.

“Humans build in areas that are naturally meant to burn.

“We live here because of the beauty, but along with that comes the prospect of fires and I believe the fires are getting worse.”

So, what can we do?

The Country Fire Authority has now enforced Fire Danger Periods across the state, with all restrictions now in place until May 1st.

Between October 1st, 2023, and April 1st, 2024, the CFA responded to 2145 vegetation fires including grass, bush and farmland across Victoria, compared to 1415 incidents in 2022/23.

CFA Chief Officer Jason Heffernan said everyone had a role to play in preparing for an upcoming fire event.

“We’re urging all Victorians to plan ahead, maintain their properties, and adhere to fire restrictions to help reduce the risk and protect our communities this season,” he said. 

“Always check fire danger ratings, make sure your machinery is in good working condition, and clear vegetation around your property to reduce the risk of fire spreading.” 

Fires — or any natural disaster — can be unknown and unpredictable. But there are ways we can prepare ourselves and our communities, and when it comes to bushfires, we are likely going to continue seeing more of them. The future needs to take prevalence over our present.

Image Credit: Museums Victoria/Unsplash